Poll Insanity

With six days until the election, the steady trickle of tracking polls has become a barrage. What to make of all the conflicting national and battleground state numbers?

First of all, I do agree with the general liberal blogger consensus that most of the polls in use are seriously flawed. If more Democrats than Republicans voted in 2000 in a given state, it doesn't make sense to have significantly more Republicans in a sample for a poll for 2004, especially when the Democratic base is much more energized than in 2000. Also, minority voters are consistently underestimated, and could make the difference, as even a Republican pollster admits.

However, another piece of dem blogger gospel--that the undecideds will break for Kerry 2 to 1--may not be a sure thing. I certainly hope it is true, but the polls that take "leaners" into account seem to be calling this into question. While this has been true so often in the past as to seem like a sure thing, the fact is a significant portion of the electorate thinks of this as wartime, and that may cause them to break for Bush. We'll know soon how this works out.

All that being said, I don't think we should pay that much attention to polls right now. We know the race is going to be close, both campaigns are pretty locked into their plans by now and this thing will be won on the ground by GOTV (and, possibly, by Republican voter suppression). Virtually all of the last week polls in 2000 had Bush leading, and Gore won by half a million votes. Until Nov. 3rd, all we just have to keep our eyes on the prize and get out the vote. Keep the Faith.